2019 Oscar Predictions 2019 oscar winner predictions 2019 oscars A Star Is Born Alfonso Cuarón Animated Short Barry Jenkins Best Actor Best Actress Best Adapted Screenplay Best Animated Feature Best Director Best Documentary Feature Best Original Screenplay Best Picture Best Supporting Actor Best Supporting Actress Black Panther BlacKkKlansman bohemian rhapsody Bradley Cooper can you ever forgive me Cinematography Costume Design Documentary Short Film Film Editing First Man Foreign Language Film Frontrunner Friday Games glenn close Green Book If Beale Street Could Talk Lady Gaga Live-Action Short mahershala ali Makeup & Hairstyling Original Score Original Song Oscars peter farrelly Predictions Production Design rami malek regina king Roma Slider Sound Editing Sound Mixing Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse spike lee The Favourite Visual Effects

With PGA, DGA and SAG split, who’s really ahead in the Oscar race? – AwardsWatch

With PGA, DGA and SAG split, who’s really ahead in the Oscar race? – AwardsWatch

The highest guilds have given us three totally different winners, all with historic paths to Greatest Image

For less than the fifth time in Oscar historical past we’ve a three-way cut up between the winners on the PGA (Producers Guild of America, who went for Inexperienced Guide), DGA (Administrators Guild of America, who went for Roma) and SAG (Display Actors Guild, who selected Black Panther). It’s applicable that, in a yr this politically and socially divided, we’d have a cut up like this. Lack of consensus, lack of ardour even, is pushing and pulling contenders in a number of instructions.

To make certain, this ‘historical past’ is just since 1995, the yr that SAG launched the Forged award, which has turn out to be a little bit of a default ‘Greatest Image’ class for the 25-year previous group. However at the least it give us info; avenues and paths that lead us to how the Academy arrives at Greatest Image in fractured years.

In wanting on the 4 occasions prior to now that PGA/DGA/SAG went alternative ways, one time Oscar went with the PGA winner (Gladiator), one time with the SAG winner (Highlight) and twice with the DGA winner (A Lovely Thoughts and Million Greenback Child). Solely a type of falls beneath the period of the preferential poll and that’s Highlight. On this occasion, actors possible pushed the movie over the opposite two (The Huge Brief and The Revenant, each of which gained different Oscars) with its low-key true story drama, significance and actors showcase. Though Highlight solely gained one different Oscar (Unique Screenplay) it confirmed the facility of the preferential poll and the way necessary it’s to be #2 or #three on ballots the place you aren’t the voter’s #1 movie. Highlight might not have had ardour votes drive it to the highest spot however respect and having the least quantity of negatives did.

PGA / DGA / SAG
2000: Gladiator / Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon / Visitors
2001: Moulin Rouge! / A Lovely Thoughts / Gosford Park
2004: The Aviator / Million Greenback Child / Sideways
2015: The Massive Brief / The Revenant / Highlight
2018: Inexperienced E-book / Roma / Black Panther

Let’s break issues down additional and take a look at movies that solely gained one of many three majors and which took that single triumph all the best way and the way every of this yr’s winners may make that very same play.

Inexperienced Ebook (Common)

A lot has been made concerning the similarities between Inexperienced Ebook and Driving Miss Daisy, the very first PGA winner. They’re truthful comparisons in theme and topic and the way every are dealt with however the historic awards trajectory similarities are much more putting. Driving Miss Daisy missed out on a Greatest Director nomination but earned a Movie Modifying nod, similar as Inexperienced Guide. It’s an essential distinction that the 1989 PGA was given after the Academy Awards that yr (simply by a couple of days however undoubtedly with voting crossover) in order that modifications issues a bit. A PGA-only winner has solely triumphed 3 times, all with very several types of movies however all with one essential issue – all of them misplaced Greatest Director (or weren’t even nominated there). For Gladiator, the massively populist movie fended off the social relevance of Visitors (Greatest Director) and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (Greatest Overseas Language Movie). For 12 Years a Slave, its socially and traditionally necessary story put it over the sci-fi drama Gravity – which gained Greatest Director for Alfonso Cuarón and tied on the PGA, a primary. Solely a type of, 12 Years a Slave, occurred within the enlargement period of the preferential poll. Inexperienced Ebook might discover itself with a bit of all of those movies – historic significance, crowdpleaser and that bizarre place within the center that hits older voters proper of their protected spots, particularly people who may need felt marginalized over the previous few winners. It additionally appears to have survived one controversy after one other, even discovering methods to color itself because the bullied underdog (with the assistance of sure retailers that I gained’t point out however rhymes with MedFine). Sure voters might reply positively to that relatively than negatively about its extra problematic points.

PGA winners who misplaced DGA and SAG (Inexperienced Guide)
2015: The Huge Brief
2013: 12 Years a Slave
2004: The Aviator
2001: Moulin Rouge!
2000: Gladiator
— (SAG Forged began in 1995)
1992: The Crying Recreation
1989: Driving Miss Daisy

Roma (Netflix)

The one part to not have a Greatest Image winner from the enlargement period is the only DGA win. For Unforgiven the Academy embraced a longtime actor whose directing hit a profession excessive at precisely the correct time. 1992 was undoubtedly going to be kinder to a brutal western than it was going to be for a stunningly courageous LGBTQ movie like The Crying Recreation as their Greatest Image (they usually wouldn’t till 2016). For A Lovely Thoughts, a movie that took its share of slings and arrows of controversy over inaccuracies within the portrayal of its real-life lead character and hassle with main man Russell Crowe, this was a little bit of an apology to director Ron Howard, who was snubbed in 1995 when his Apollo 13 gained PGA, DGA and SAG after which not solely misplaced Greatest Image however didn’t even discover room for Howard as Greatest Director nominee. The Departed was, for all intents and functions, yr to lastly reward Martin Scorsese each Greatest Director and Greatest Image after many years of losses. The Academy was so brazen as to have the directing class introduced by his friends Francis Ford Coppola, George Lucas and Steven Spielberg. Think about if that stunt had failed.

What does this imply for Roma? Will it find yourself like The Revenant or Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon? There’s an opportunity it finds itself in a really comparable circumstance because the latter. Each CTHD and Roma gained the Golden Globes for Overseas Language Movie and Director. Each gained the DGA. Each got here in with 10 nominations, a tie for Overseas Language Movies on the Oscars. Cuarón is already a Greatest Director Oscar winner and for a movie that got here this near profitable Greatest Image (Gravity, which gained 6 Oscars). One thing that separates Roma from CTHD is that it earned two appearing nominations. Not solely that however Greatest Actress nominee Yalitza Aparicio solely had a Critics’ Selection nom coming in and Supporting Actress nominee Marina de Tavira had nothing. And I imply nothing. Even lower than Marcia Homosexual Harden did. That’s large. It means actors are behind this film and with out actors, you’re not profitable Greatest Image.

DGA winners who misplaced PGA and SAG (Roma)
2015: The Revenant
2006: The Departed
2004: Million Greenback Child
2001: A Lovely Thoughts
2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
— (SAG Forged began in 1995)
1992: Unforgiven
1989: Born on the Fourth of July

Black Panther (Disney)

Of the 13 movies that fall beneath the SAG class, solely 4 got here up empty-handed on the Oscars and solely certainly one of them (The Birdcage) was not nominated for Greatest Image. All Greatest Image winners right here additionally had a number of above the road nominations, together with appearing, directing and screenplay and every of them gained no less than a type of. Black Panther has no above the road nominations in any respect (not even movie modifying) so it’s arduous to make an argument for its SAG win to have the ability to translate into Greatest Image. Whether or not it’s the fashionable period or the previous, there simply isn’t a path for it outdoors of its monster field workplace and culturally related social message. Is that sufficient? I don’t assume so. There are in all probability sufficient Academy members nonetheless happy on the concept of a ‘comedian ebook’ film even getting into the Greatest Image rankings and I can see it ending up on the low finish of lots of their ballots.

SAG winners who misplaced PGA and DGA (Black Panther)
2017: Three Billboards Outdoors Ebbing, Missouri
2016: Hidden Figures
2015: Highlight
2013: American Hustle
2011: The Assist
2009: Inglorious Basterds
2005: Crash
2004: Sideways
2001: Gosford Park
2000: Visitors
1998: Shakespeare in Love
1997: The Full Monty
1996: The Birdcage

So the place does that depart Inexperienced E-book, Roma and Black Panther on this race? What if BAFTA goes deep for The Favorite this weekend? That may clearly complicate issues extra however I’m considering they’ll in all probability break for Roma. If that’s the case it’ll probably sufficient to name (or maintain) Roma because the frontrunner. It additionally makes for an almost unattainable probability for BlacKkKlansman, which was nominated for all three and misplaced all of them, a whisper now. I assumed Spike Lee’s movie stood an excellent probability of profitable PGA and/or SAG and it wanted one in every of them to have a preventing probability. Focus Options has by no means gained Greatest Image earlier than (they acquired shut with Brokeback Mountain) however they’ve finished fairly properly with appearing winners (Oldman, Redmayne, McConaughey). Nonetheless, BlacKkKlansman is probably going profitable Tailored Screenplay (and doubtless WGA) an on a preferential poll that could be sufficient for it leapfrog over the presumed three leaders and discover itself with the ultimate award of the night time.

Listed here are my Frontrunner Friday predictions for the 2019 Oscars on Friday, February eight, 2019 and don’t overlook to comply with my 2019 Oscar Winner Predictions web page right here, updating stay till the day of the Academy Awards.

BEST PICTURE

1. ROMA (BFCA, GG*)
Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón
2. BLACKkKLANSMAN
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee
three. GREEN BOOK (GG, PGA)
Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga
four. THE FAVOURITE
Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos
5. BLACK PANTHER (SAG)
Kevin Feige
6. VICE
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick
7. A STAR IS BORN
Invoice Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor
eight. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (GG)
Graham King

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
GG – Golden Globe
PGA- Producers Guild of America
SAG – Display Actors Guild

*Overseas Language Movie winner

DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuarón – ROMA (BFCA, DGA, GG)
2. Spike Lee – BLACKkKLANSMAN
three. Yorgos Lanthimos – THE FAVOURITE
four. Adam McKay – VICE
5. Pawel Pawlikowski – COLD WAR

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
DGA – Administrators Guild of America
GG – Golden Globe

ACTOR

1. Rami Malek – BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (GG, SAG)
2. Christian Bale – VICE (BFCA, GG)
three. Bradley Cooper – A STAR IS BORN
four. Viggo Mortensen – GREEN BOOK
5. Willem Dafoe – AT ETERNITY’S GATE

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Display Actors Guild

ACTRESS

1. Glenn Shut – THE WIFE (BFCA, GG, SAG)
2. Olivia Colman – THE FAVOURITE (GG)
three. Woman Gaga – A STAR IS BORN (BFCA)
four. Yalitza Aparicio – ROMA
5. Melissa McCarthy – CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Display Actors Guild
Spirit – Unbiased Spirit Awards

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – GREEN BOOK (BFCA, GG, SAG)
2. Richard E. Grant – CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
three. Adam Driver – BLACKkKLANSMAN
four. Sam Elliott – A STAR IS BORN
5. Sam Rockwell – VICE

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Display Actors Guild
Spirit – Unbiased Spirit Awards

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Regina King – IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (BFCA, GG)
2. Rachel Weisz – THE FAVOURITE
three. Marina de Tavira – ROMA
four. Amy Adams – VICE
5. Emma Stone – THE FAVOURITE

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
GG – Golden Globe
Spirit – Unbiased Spirit Awards

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
2. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK – Barry Jenkins (BFCA)
three. CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? – Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
four. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
5. A STAR IS BORN – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
Spirit – Unbiased Spirit Awards
USC – USC Scripter Award
WGA – Writers Guild of America

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. THE FAVOURITE – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
2. GREEN BOOK – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly (GG)
three. ROMA – Alfonso Cuarón
four. VICE – Adam McKay
5. FIRST REFORMED – Paul Schrader (BFCA)

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
GG – Golden Globe
Spirit – Unbiased Spirit Awards
WGA – Writers Guild of America

FILM EDITING

1. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Barry Alexander Brown
2. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – John Ottman
three. VICE – Hank Corwin
four. THE FAVOURITE – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
5. GREEN BOOK – Patrick J. Don Vito

ACE – American Cinema Editors
BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. ROMA – Alfonso Cuarón (BFCA)
2. COLD WAR – Łukasz Żal
three. A STAR IS BORN – Matthew Libatique
four. THE FAVOURITE – Robbie Ryan
5. NEVER LOOK AWAY – Caleb Deschanel

ASC – American Society of Cinematographers
BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. THE FAVOURITE – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (ADG)
2. BLACK PANTHER – Hannah Beachler (ADG, BFCA)
three. ROMA – Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
four. FIRST MAN – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
5. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – John Myhre, Gordon Sim

ADG – Artwork Administrators Guild
BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. THE FAVOURITE – Sandy Powell
2. BLACK PANTHER – Ruth E. Carter (BFCA)
three. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – Sandy Powell
four. MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS – Alexandra Byrne
5. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS – Mary Zophres

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
CDG – Costume Designers Guild

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK – Nicholas Britell
2. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Terence Blanchard
three. BLACK PANTHER – Ludwig Goransson
four. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – Marc Shaiman
5. ISLE OF DOGS – Alexandre Desplat

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards

ORIGINAL SONG

1. A STAR IS BORN “Shallow” by Woman Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice (BFCA, GG)
2. BLACK PANTHER – “All The Stars” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
three. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – “The Place The place Misplaced Issues Go” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
four. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS – “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
5. RBG – “I’ll Battle” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson

BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
GG – Golden Globes

SOUND EDITING

1. FIRST MAN – Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
2. BLACK PANTHER – Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
three. ROMA – Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
four. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – John Warhurst
5. A QUIET PLACE – Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl

MPSE – Movement Image Sound Editors

SOUND MIXING

1. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
2. ROMA – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García
three. FIRST MAN – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
four. BLACK PANTHER – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin
5. A STAR IS BORN – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
CAS – Cinema Audio Society

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. VICE – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney (BFCA)
2. BORDER – Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer
three. MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
MUAH – Make-up and Hairstyling Guild

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick (VES)
2. FIRST MAN – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm (VES)
three. SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy
four. CHRISTOPHER ROBIN – Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould
5. READY PLAYER ONE – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
VES – Visible Results Society

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman (Annie, BFCA, GG)
2. INCREDIBLES 2 – Brad Hen
three. ISLE OF DOGS – Wes Anderson
four. RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET – Wealthy Moore, Phil Johnston
5. MIRAI – Mamoru Hosoda

Annie – Worldwide Animated Movie Affiliation
BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
GG – Golden Globes

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. RBG – Betsy West, Julie Cohen
2. FREE SOLO – Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
three. MINDING THE GAP – Bing Liu
four. HALE COUNTY THIS MORNING, THIS EVENING – RaMell Ross (CEH)
5. OF FATHERS AND SONS – Talal Derki

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
CEH – Cinema Eye Honors
DGA – Administrators Guild of America
IDA – Unbiased Documentary Affiliation
Spirit – Unbiased Spirit Awards

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. ROMA – Mexico (BFCA, GG)
2. COLD WAR – Poland
three. SHOPLIFTERS – Japan
four. NEVER LOOK AWAY – GErmany
5. CAPERNAUM – Lebanon

BAFTA – British Movie Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Movie Critics Affiliation (Critics Selection)
GG – Golden Globes

ANIMATED SHORT

1. BAO – Domee Shi
2. ANIMAL BEHAVIOUR – Alison Snowden, David Nice
three. LATE AFTERNOON – Louise Bagnall
four. ONE SMALL STEP – Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
5. WEEKENDS – Trevor Jimenez

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. A NIGHT IN THE GARDEN – Marshall Curry
2. END GAME – Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
three. PERIOD. END OF SENTENCE. – Rayka Zehtabchi
four. LIFEBOAT – Skye Fitzgerald
5. BLACK SHEEP – Ed Perkins

LIVE-ACTION SHORT

1. MARGUERITE – Marianne Farley
2. SKIN – Man Nattiv
three. DETAINMENT – Vincent Lambe
four. MOTHER – Rodrigo Sorogoyen
5. FAUVE – Jeremy Comte

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